Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Twitter IPO shares aren’t for everyone

SAN FRANCISCO -- Twitter IPO shares aren't for everyone.

That's the word from the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Twitter's hometown here, where the company and its investment bankers gave a presentation to professional money managers Monday.

Members of the press weren't allowed into the room where the event was held, but we were able to ambush a half-dozen fund managers while they waited in a taxi line after the meeting.

Once accosted, I asked this question to those who said they had seen the IPO presentation:

Do you plan to buy Twitter shares?

Of the six who answered, one said "we're not allowed to talk about it," two said "yes," two said "not sure" and another said "no," while cursing the company's investment bankers.

"They'll oversubscribe it 10 times," said the man, who declined to give his name.

He was right, of course.

Demand was so strong for the shares that Twitter on Tuesday raised its IPO price range to between $23 and $25 a share.

At the mid-point of that price range, Twitter will raise $1.7 billion.

Among Internet technology companies that have gone public during the last three years, that ranks Twitter's IPO behind those of Facebook and LinkedIn in size, and slightly ahead of Groupon and Zynga.

It also gives Twitter an IPO valuation relative to annual revenue that is more similar to that of Facebook than LinkedIn, at the time of their respective offerings.

While Facebook has been a mixed bag for investors, depending on what price they bought its shares at, LinkedIn has produced market-beating returns and has never fallen below its $45 IPO price.

LinkedIn is now consistently profitable and valued at almost $27 billion, while Facebook, also profitable several quarters in a row, is valued at a staggering $122 billion.

Twitter, unprofitable and much smaller than those Internet advertising rivals, is expected to be valued at between $13 billion and $14 billion.

Twitter's sales are projected to rise 53% next year to $! 950 million, according to an estimate that the company's bankers provided to attendees of the presentation.

One of those who attended and said they were unsure whether they would place a bid on Twitter IPO shares was Sam Console, senior equity portfolio manager for Ranier Investment Management of Seattle.

He said the fund-management firm would consider the new forecasts for revenue and profit shared by Twitter's bankers before making their decision.

"We need to talk about it some more," said Console, who started his career as an equity analyst in 1996.

The tech IPOs conducted since Netscape Communications set off the tech stock boom that year have one important thing in common: a scarcity of shares.

By selling only a small slice of a newly-public company, Twitter's bankers are following a long-established game plan that ensures more buyers than sellers at the time of the IPO -- even though the offering is for 70 million shares.

Thanks to that imbalance of supply and demand, money managers who can get the stock at its IPO price this week could see a quick profit.

Longer term, what Twitter's stock performance will be for everyone else is anyone's guess now.

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