Friday, March 29, 2019

This Ohio town wants to help you pay off your student debt

Want a way out of your student debt? Try moving to Newburgh Heights, Ohio.

The 2,000-resident town, less than 10 miles from Cleveland, is offering to help college graduates pay off their student debt.

The rules are simple:

Be a graduate with student debt from a four-year accredited college or university.Buy a house in the town valued at $50,000 or more within five years of graduating.After 15 years, the town will pay off half of your debt, up to $50,000.Even if you pay off the debt before the 15 years is up, you'll still receive the amount owed when you first enrolled in the town's program.This deal is locked down, so even if the program is ended, you'll still get your payout.

The town's mayor, Trevor Elkins, told CNBC he's tired of seeing young people leave Newburgh Heights behind. "We wanted to provide an incentive for them to stay and put down roots here in the community, transitioning from the old Rust Belt manufacturing economy to a knowledge-based economy of health care and technology," he said.

Deals like this aren't just happening in this Ohio town. As student debt has come to burden Americans more than auto or credit card debt, several cities and states have created creative ways to help residents with the loans, said Mark Kantrowitz, an expert on education debt. Maine recently introduced a program that allows student borrowers to save on their income taxes.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal and Comcast Ventures are investors in Acorns.

Thursday, March 14, 2019

$213.14 Million in Sales Expected for Fulton Financial Corp (FULT) This Quarter

Wall Street analysts forecast that Fulton Financial Corp (NASDAQ:FULT) will report sales of $213.14 million for the current quarter, Zacks reports. Five analysts have made estimates for Fulton Financial’s earnings, with estimates ranging from $210.40 million to $216.35 million. Fulton Financial posted sales of $162.74 million during the same quarter last year, which would indicate a positive year over year growth rate of 31%. The company is scheduled to issue its next earnings report on Tuesday, April 16th.

According to Zacks, analysts expect that Fulton Financial will report full-year sales of $880.13 million for the current year, with estimates ranging from $862.70 million to $897.23 million. For the next fiscal year, analysts forecast that the firm will report sales of $911.80 million, with estimates ranging from $879.80 million to $940.61 million. Zacks’ sales calculations are an average based on a survey of research firms that cover Fulton Financial.

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Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT) last released its earnings results on Tuesday, January 15th. The bank reported $0.33 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the Thomson Reuters’ consensus estimate of $0.35 by ($0.02). The business had revenue of $215.65 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $215.11 million. Fulton Financial had a return on equity of 9.25% and a net margin of 22.66%. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $0.28 earnings per share.

FULT has been the subject of several research reports. BidaskClub upgraded Fulton Financial from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, November 27th. Barclays reaffirmed a “buy” rating and set a $21.00 target price on shares of Fulton Financial in a research note on Friday, January 11th. ValuEngine raised Fulton Financial from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, December 1st. Boenning Scattergood reissued a “hold” rating on shares of Fulton Financial in a research note on Wednesday, January 16th. Finally, Zacks Investment Research cut Fulton Financial from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 11th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, six have issued a hold rating and one has assigned a buy rating to the company. The company has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $18.92.

Shares of NASDAQ:FULT traded down $0.09 during mid-day trading on Friday, hitting $16.38. 33,614 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 1,109,482. The company has a market cap of $3.03 billion, a P/E ratio of 13.88, a PEG ratio of 1.54 and a beta of 0.96. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, a quick ratio of 0.97 and a current ratio of 0.97. Fulton Financial has a 52-week low of $14.38 and a 52-week high of $19.55.

Several hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Geode Capital Management LLC grew its position in Fulton Financial by 4.8% during the 4th quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 2,356,948 shares of the bank’s stock worth $36,485,000 after acquiring an additional 108,936 shares during the last quarter. Norges Bank acquired a new stake in Fulton Financial during the 4th quarter worth $28,422,000. Hillcrest Asset Management LLC raised its stake in Fulton Financial by 80.8% during the 4th quarter. Hillcrest Asset Management LLC now owns 554,602 shares of the bank’s stock worth $8,585,000 after buying an additional 247,917 shares during the period. Legal & General Group Plc increased its holdings in Fulton Financial by 4.3% during the 4th quarter. Legal & General Group Plc now owns 218,835 shares of the bank’s stock worth $3,387,000 after purchasing an additional 9,099 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Thrivent Financial for Lutherans increased its holdings in Fulton Financial by 5.5% during the 4th quarter. Thrivent Financial for Lutherans now owns 44,670 shares of the bank’s stock worth $691,000 after purchasing an additional 2,316 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 63.03% of the company’s stock.

Fulton Financial Company Profile

Fulton Financial Corporation operates as a multi-bank financial holding company that provides banking and financial services to businesses and consumers. It accepts various checking accounts and savings deposit products, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. The company also offers consumer loans, including home equity loans and lines of credit, automobile loans, automobile and equipment leases, personal lines of credit, and checking account overdraft protection; construction and jumbo residential mortgage loans; and commercial lending products comprising commercial, financial, agricultural, and real estate loans.

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Earnings History and Estimates for Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT)

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Invest to help the environment and still profit? Experts weigh in on how

When financial advisor Cathy Curtis takes on a new client, she gives them a questionnaire that asks, "Are you interested in impact or sustainable investing?"

Most people say yes to these investments, which involve putting money into companies that are keeping climate change and other concerns in mind, according to Curtis, founder and chief executive officer of Curtis Financial Planning in Oakland, California.

But then when the investing conversation goes further, there is often a caveat.

Mojave Desert. Sierralara | Getty Images Mojave Desert.

"Eighty percent of the time, the person will say, 'Yes, I'm interested as long as my return doesn't get affected by it,'" Curtis said. "There's this persistent myth that you can't get as good returns with investing for impact."

But there is little evidence to back those fears, according to the latest research from Morningstar.

In 2018, sustainable funds outperformed benchmarks, with 63 percent landing in the top half of their categories, the investment research company found. Just 37 percent finished in the bottom half of their respective categories for the year.

What's more, that strong performance holds if you look at sustainable funds' track records' over three and five years, though 2018 was a record year. That's in contrast to broader stock market returns, which in 2018 were the worst since 2008. Bond market returns were the lowest since 2013.

"There's really no evidence out there that this is an underperforming way to invest," said Jon Hale, head of sustainable investing research at Morningstar.

show chapters UBS sees rising interest in sustainable investing    2:47 AM ET Mon, 24 Sept 2018 | 01:06 Measuring performance

Sustainable funds can be broken into many categories, according to Morningstar. They can range from funds that consider environmental, social and governance, or ESG, issues to those that are devoted entirely to those standards.

The category also includes impact funds that focus on societal or environmental impact areas, as well as those that do so exclusively on the green economy.

The ranks of sustainable funds have continued to grow. In 2018, the number of sustainable equity and bond funds climbed to 351 from 235 the previous year — a nearly 50 percent increase, according to Morningstar.

Those 351 funds, which come in both ETF and open-end varieties, managed a total of $161 billion as of the end of last year.

The perception that the funds may not perform as well dates to the 1980s and '90s, according to Hale, when socially responsible investments, or SRI, first came out.

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Those early strategies required investors to exclude tobacco stocks, which were strong-performing holdings, particularly because of the dividends they paid.

The theory emerged then that if you were going to leave out those high-performing stocks, your portfolio would underperform, according to Hale.

"Empirically, there wasn't a whole lot of data to back that up," Hale said.

SRI funds figured out how to replace those tobacco holdings with other strong dividend-paying stocks. Today, portfolio construction abilities are even more sophisticated, making it even less of an issue, Hale said.

Watching costs

Yet another worry when it comes to sustainable investing is whether investors will pay more because of the costs associated with owning the funds.

About 30 percent of U.S. sustainable funds are passive strategies, such as index funds, according to Morningstar. The rest are active strategies, which generally tend to come with higher fees.

Still, investors should not pay more for these strategies than they would for regular investments, Hale said.

show chapters Socially responsible investing Socially responsible investing    8:29 AM ET Wed, 17 Oct 2018 | 01:27

"They should not accept a premium for sustainable funds," Hale said. "There's no good reason for it."

That is because there are many low-cost sustainable fund options. There is one product, however, that sustainable funds generally cannot match: market-based index funds, which have fees as low as 5 basis points.

"You're not going to get that fee, but you're still going to be able to get into ESG passive portfolios for 15 or 20 basis points," Hale said. "Yes, it's way more than a market-based index fund.

"But in an absolute sense, it's low fees."

Proceeding with caution

Even as sustainable investing strategies grow, financial advisors say they are cautious about adding them to their clients' portfolios.

Curtis said she offers the strategy, but does not force it on her clients, who are predominantly women. If they feel strongly about impact investing, Curtis said she will create portfolios that are 100 percent invested with sustainable funds.

"Now there's enough funds where you can build a diversified portfolio," Curtis said. "There's funds represented in every asset class now. Three years ago, there wasn't."

More from Impact Investing:
How investors can save the planet and still make money
Self-driving cars could change commuting in retirement
How sustainable investing allows investing with conscience

But Eric Roberge, a financial planner and founder of Beyond Your Hammock, said 20 percent is the maximum allocation in these investments for his clients, who are in their 30s or 40s.

That's because there are still companies that tend to outperform that are not necessarily considered environmentally friendly, he said. Eliminating those companies could limit his clients' gains.

That could change as companies shift their strategies to become more environmentally friendly — and potentially reap stock rewards for doing so.

"At some point, the wave might shift," Roberge said. "But right now, we're not there yet. We're still very early on."

Still, Roberge said he is keeping an eye on innovation in sustainable funds. "Down the road, these types of investments are going to get better and better," he said.

Monday, March 11, 2019

Freezing February Mailbag

It's the February Mailbag! On this episode of the Motley Fool Answers podcast, with the help of Motley Fool analyst Emily Flippen, hosts Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your very impressive questions about retiring early, generating income, lifecycle funds, and just what are Bro's credentials anyway?

A full transcript follows the video.

This video was recorded on Feb. 26, 2019.

Alison Southwick: This is Motley Fool Answers! I'm Alison Southwick, and I'm joined, as always, by Robert Brokamp, personal finance expert here at The Motley Fool.

Robert Brokamp: Hello, everybody!

Southwick: It's the February Mailbag episode. Thanks to Motley Fool analyst Emily Flippen, we're going to answer your questions about when to sell stocks, income-producing investments, mutual fund expenses, and more. All that...and more...this never works out. I stumble over that every time! All that and more on this week's episode of Motley Fool Answers.

__

Southwick: Fans of the Rule Breaker Investing podcast are going to know our special guest, today, but those of you who only listen to Answers [and you're pretty cool if you do]...

Brokamp: We love you!

Southwick: ... [really the best, because you love us the best], you don't know Emily Flippen. She's an analyst at The Motley Fool, and she's going to help us answer your mailbag questions today. Emily, thank you so much for joining us!

Emily Flippen: I'm so excited to be here!

Southwick: Can you tell us a little bit about how you came to be at The Motley Fool?

Flippen: Sure, it's a long story. Isn't it always? I actually came from an internship. I did an internship in the summer of 2016 on the investing team and I was just hooked, so I'm really happy to be here full time. Those of you who are not listening to the Rule Breaker Investing podcast should get on that.

Brokamp: It is rather good I have to say.

Southwick: Before you came to The Fool -- if I'm remembering this right -- you worked in China? You specialized in China?

Flippen: I like to say I did both those things. I went to school in China. I did my undergrad in China. Then I worked in Connecticut before coming here.

Southwick: Well, we're happy that you are here with us today. Should we get into the questions?

Brokamp: Let's do it!

Southwick: The first one is going to Bro. It comes from Katherine."My husband and I are theoretically ready to retire. We have the savings, but it's mostly all in retirement accounts. Since he's only 57 and can't withdraw from these accounts for two and a half years without penalty, and I'm five years younger than he is, we are looking at a home equity line of credit to pay for our living expenses during the two and a half year gap. At 59 and a half, he would pay back the line of credit with money from his 401(k). Can you suggest resources for finding a good home equity line of credit?" Bro, what do you think?

Brokamp: First of all, Katherine and her husband are technically retiring early, so congratulations on that!

Southwick: Congratulations!

Brokamp: As I often tell people, right before you retire, you should see a qualified fee-only financial planner just to get that second opinion. Make sure you do have enough to retire.

The other thing that's important to know is there are some ways to get money out of retirement accounts before age 59 and a half without paying that penalty. I would look into those first before you do the home equity line of credit.

First of all, probably the one that's most applicable to you is something called "substantially equal periodic payments," otherwise known as 72(t). It's very complicated. Look it up. Basically you commit to taking out a specific amount from your accounts each year for five years, but then you don't have to pay the penalty. So definitely look into that.

The other thing is that in many cases, you can take money out of your 401(k) at age 55, but just from the 401(k) from the job you just retired from. Not a 401(k) from an old job, but from the current one. Check with your plan. You might be able to take the money out at age 55. Then there's one that we often point out, and that is contributions to Roth IRAs can come out tax free and penalty free anytime. I would look into that first before considering any sort of home equity.

If you're going to go that way, just know that nowadays the rate on a home equity line of credit... And that's the way to go, by the way. A home equity loan is just a big lump sum. I would go with the line of credit, which you basically draw on as you need it. The rates are like 5.5 to 7%. I would say that's middle range. It's not low. And because you're not using it to improve your house, the interest is not tax deductible. That's something to keep in mind.

In terms of finding the loan, there are plenty of places that will help you locate the best rate, like Bankrate.com and other websites like that. I would say the most important thing besides the interest rate to pay attention to is the up-front costs. Some home equity loans are basically like getting a mortgage. You have to pay for the appraisal, the credit check, and all that stuff which could add hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars to the cost of the loan.

Some will waive all those, so you want to look for someone who's doing that. You want to look for anyone that's not going to charge you any ongoing fees, and you want to know when the rate adjusts, because most home equity loans have adjustable rates.

And the final thing is if you do this route where you borrow money -- you're borrowing two years' worth of living expenses -- then you get to age 59 and a half and you're going to pay all that out of your 401(k). You're going to withdraw a large amount of your 401(k), and that's probably going to drive you up a tax bracket or two, so be aware of those tax consequences.

Southwick: Let's move on to the next question. This comes from BlueMax.

Brokamp: That's the name. What can I say?

Southwick: "On the Motley Fool Money podcast, someone asked whether they should sell some shares of Amazon.com because it was 20% of their portfolio. My question is instead of selling, why can't I just keep adding to other positions in my portfolio until Amazon is well below 20%? Since we all want to invest The Foolish way -- that is l-o-o-n-g term -- why sell the stock at all?"

Flippen: Well, it's such a good problem to have, and I think if any investor was capable of just adding a ton to all their other positions so that Amazon was suddenly less a percent of their portfolio, of course that's the better option. You always want more money in the market.

But I think the vast majority of investors who find themselves in a position where they look down their portfolio and one stock has appreciated so much that it's a much larger percent than they're comfortable with, they then have to struggle with, "OK, I don't have any extra money I need to put in, so maybe I should sell some of this to further diversify my portfolio."

I think ultimately it's a personal decision. There's definitely added risk when you have one stock that's a large portion of your portfolio, and if you're able to add to all your other positions, of course that's a great idea. Do that. Diversify via adding more money to your portfolio. But if not, there's some value in diversifying and making sure that you haven't added the extra risk of having a lot of your net worth in one or two stocks.

Brokamp: And this doesn't apply to Amazon because it doesn't pay a dividend, but if this were a dividend-paying stock, certainly one other thing to consider would be to not reinvest the dividends. Instead, let them accumulate in cash and then buy other stocks to rebalance your portfolio.

Southwick: The next question comes from Cody. "I took your advice on FI," [financial independence], "and now I am going to RE," [retire early]. "That being said, I'm moving overseas to do it. Southeast Asia has a low cost of living. Some places have great healthcare. The food is amazing and wow, the beaches. I'm just trying to understand tax implications. I will be in my mid-40s and plan to take a bunch of cash and move it into an index fund and other funds."

"For simplicity, let's say I am starting with $1 million in cash. I plan to dollar-cost average the $1 million over a couple of years before I head to my Southeast Asian retreat. I then need $50,000 for my new, comfy lifestyle. Each year when I withdraw the $50,000, will I need to be specific about which shares I sell? If I understand correctly, I will still be paying capital gains tax and possibly federal income tax. Or not, if this falls into the 'foreign earned income exclusion.' My fuzzy math says it does not matter which shares I sell, but there is a tickle in my brain that says I don't know what I am talking about."

Brokamp: Always pay attention to that tickle! That's always my rule of thumb.

Cody, you opened it by saying you took our advice to retire early. I would say we've never really advised that. I wouldn't advise against it. I would just say you definitely want to make sure if you're going to do that step that you have saved up enough to pay for your lifestyle.

And based on the scenario you laid out, you're saying that you have $1 million and you're going to withdraw $50,000. That's a 5% withdrawal rate. That's pretty high. Even the standard denizens of the FIRE community [Financial Independence/Retire Early] use the 4% rule and, as we have discussed and will discuss, again, in a future episode with an expert on this, 4% is actually pretty aggressive for those who are retiring young. I would say if that is really your situation, you might want to wait a little bit and save up some more before you retire early.

Your question was about taxes. The situation is if you are a U.S. citizen, you owe taxes regardless of where you live. You will be paying capital gains taxes [taxes on dividends, taxes on interest]. Unfortunately, you will not be able to take the foreign-earned-income exclusion because that only applies to getting a paycheck overseas. It does not apply to passive income or something you get from your portfolio.

Now when it comes to when you decide which shares to sell, it definitely makes sense to identify them, but for tax purposes. You're saying that you're going to dollar-cost average over two years. Every time you move money in, you're buying at a different cost basis, and if you're reinvesting the dividends, when those reinvest, you'll get a new cost basis.

It definitely makes sense to look at your tax situation every time you want to sell something. Let's say you're in a year where you have high income. Then you want to choose shares that have a higher cost basis to limit your tax liability. If you're in a year where you actually don't have a lot of income and you're in a lower tax bracket, then you might want to bite the tax bullet and buy something with a lower cost basis. You're biting the tax bullet when you're in a lower tax rate.

I should also add this is all about money that's outside of a 401(k) or an IRA. If it's all in a 401(k) or an IRA, it really doesn't matter. Whenever you take the money out, you'll pay the taxes unless it's a Roth.

Flippen: I'll add that depending on where somebody plans to retire, they're likely also going to be paying taxes in that country. America's one of the few countries that double taxes their expats, so it's important to remember that a lot of the cost savings that can be associated with retiring outside the country are counteracted by the relatively higher taxes you'd be paying.

Southwick: The next question comes from Chad. "I've been investing money for the last 12 years for the purpose of a family trip scheduled this summer after our oldest child graduates from high school. My question is when should money be removed from the market? If the best practice is to not invest money needed in the next five years, should I have stopped investing five years ago and kept that money in a low-risk savings account? I kept investing and I'm now ready to sell some stock to finance the trip. Unfortunately, the due date of the down payment last December coincided with the biggest market drop in several years."

Of course it did.

"I have toyed with the idea of pulling the balance out now to keep it safe even though it isn't due until the beginning of April. Right now I'm planning to leave it there until I need to pull it out, but I'm curious as to your thoughts on the timing of the withdrawals."

Oh, man, Chad, I hope you didn't send us this question a really long time ago and we're just now getting to it.

Flippen: Unfortunately, Chad, I think it's a great example of the fact that you are supposed to move your assets from risky assets to less-risky assets as you get closer to the date that you need them so you don't accidentally need a lump sum of money that you have to withdraw when the market is significantly down. And a lot of this for people who retire can be done via a laddering approach.

But when you're saving for something that maybe is more than five years out, I think keeping that in the market until you've reached that three- or five-year mark is probably OK. Once you start reaching that three-year mark, you need to think about how much money you have, how much money you need, and how much can that investment lose over the course of its life while you can still fund what you need to fund. So if you have $3,000 three years before [you need $3,000], put that into maybe a less-risky asset.

It's also important to note that if you invest that money, especially in a taxable account, you're going to be paying taxes on the money that you withdraw, as well. You should be aware of the fact that some of these investing avenues will create less of a tax liability at your time of withdrawal, but generally speaking, The Motley Fool doesn't recommend keeping money in the market that you'll need earlier than three years and maybe up to five years.

Brokamp: I would like to commend Chad, by the way, because he's been saving for 12 years...

Flippen: That's amazing!

Southwick: Yes, I want to hear all about this vacation!

Brokamp: ... for a family vacation, so that's pretty impressive.

Flippen: Most people don't have that discipline.

Brokamp: No. I just looked at the historical odds over different time periods when stocks made money. On a daily basis, stocks make money about 55% of the time. On a day-to-day basis, it's a little better than a coin flip.

Once you move out to one year, it's 75% of the time, so one out of every four years. Once you move to five years it's 85% and 10 years, it's 95%. So whenever I say how much you should have out of the market, I always say three to five years, because for some people, five years makes a lot of sense. For a lot of other people -- especially a lot of Fools -- that's far too conservative and they're very comfortable with even waiting until they need the money a year from now. It doesn't have to be an either-or situation, so you could have some of it in the market and some out.

But the safe thing to do is what Emily said, and that is if you need it in the next few years, keep it in cash.

Southwick: I remember when we were saying for the last many years that we were going to buy a new house. We just need that way for that new house to come along. And if we'd pulled our money out back when we thought we were going to buy a new house, it would have been out of the market for like eight years. So it's tough timing that.

The next one comes from Aaron. "I want to know how my funds have performed taking the fees into account. Can you tell me the best place to look for this? My active fund has produced an 18% annualized return over the past 10 years with a 0.85% expense ratio, while my S&P 500 index fund has produced 14% a year at 0.04%. Am I really paying 20X as much for the active fund? Does the growth of $10,000 graphics on Morningstar account for fees? Thank you for every episode and double thanks for the southern lawyer boys. The obsessively yours."

Brokamp: Do you want to explain the Southern lawyer boys?

Southwick: [In Southern accent] "Oh, I do declare." It's been a while since we've done those episodes.

Brokamp: Judge Bro episodes.

Southwick: Yes, we had a string of episodes where they just went off the rails and I was presenting different court cases.

Brokamp: Showing your talents I think is what you mean to say.

Southwick: My voice talent. One of my lawyers that was presenting the course was the genteel Southern lawyer. Gosh, it's been a while! Things used to get really weird around here.

Brokamp: Yes. Anyway, back to the question. Most of the expenses that come from running a mutual fund are captured in what is known as the expense ratio. You can look that up on any fund that you have. Again, Morningstar and your 401(k) always expresses that. In the vast majority of times, any performance numbers you see incorporate the expense ratio. In other words, it's an after-fee performance number. That is reflected in those numbers as well as those growth of 10,000 graphics you see on Morningstar or anywhere else.

However, there are other costs that are not captured by the expense ratio like loads, for instance, that are up-front commissions. Or any transaction fees. So sometimes if you're on a discount brokerage platform and you want to buy a fund, some of them don't charge transaction fees and some do, so that's not factored in there.

The other cost is the commissions that the fund pays to buy and sell investments. That is not in the expense ratio. The late, great John Bogle calculated that that adds about 0.5% to the costs of funds, on average. But that's not expressed in the expense ratio. You have to dig through their filings to find that, but you can approximate it by the turnover ratio, which is basically how much the fund trades throughout the year.

The average actively managed fund trades at a turnover ratio of 90%, which basically means over the course of the year, about 90% of its holdings have been rearranged. Compare that to the Vanguard 500 with a turnover ratio of 3%. So not only are you paying a lower expense ratio with index funds, you're also paying lower internal costs that you don't see.

That said, he has an actively managed fund that has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. I'd want to know more about that fund to make sure we're doing an apples-to-apples comparison. That's still pretty encouraging, and an 8.85% expense ratio is about average, so it's not outrageous for a good actively managed fund.

Southwick: The next question comes from Brian. "I'm 35 years old and contribute 15% of my income to my 401(k) and they match $0.50 on the dollar up to 6%. I will be a few thousand dollars shy of the $19,000 contribution limit. I also invest in a Roth IRA and I use what I learned from The Fool to invest in single stocks as I find it extremely interesting and fun." Yay! That's why we're here.

Brokamp: That's right!

Southwick: "I have read mixed reviews about using Roth retirement accounts. People say that it depends on what tax bracket you will be in during retirement, but since retirement is not for a while, how would I know this? Since I'm on the younger side, is this OK? Should I max out my employer 401(k) to get the tax benefits or just do a normal IRA so I can invest in the single stocks I want?"

Flippen: I'm sure you all get this question all the time.

Brokamp: We do.

Flippen: I'm a bit of a Roth IRA junkie, so I can't help but answer it.

Brokamp: So many Roth IRA junkies.

Southwick: There are dozens of us!

Flippen: Here's the thing. Here's the thing that drives me insane about other Roth IRA junkies and why I'm the best Roth IRA junkie. See, people don't understand that it doesn't matter what age you are. Mathematically speaking, the only thing that matters in the Roth vs. traditional debate is your tax bracket now vs. the tax bracket that you think you'll be in, in retirement. Nobody knows that. And like what you mentioned, Brian, nobody knows what your tax rate is going to be in retirement.

What we can do is think about two things -- historical tax rates. I think a lot of people are looking at the tax rates, now, and thinking they're historically low, so maybe I should go ahead and bank on those tax savings now, because I can't guarantee that in the future I will have those same tax savings.

But the flip side of that is if you're working, you're probably going to be making more money than you are in retirement. So all else equal, typically you're better off going with a traditional IRA or a traditional savings [it doesn't really matter the venue in which you do it], but traditional savings vs. Roth savings.

Us being human, and us having no clue what the government's going to do in the future, I think it's probably advisable to have a mix of both. Then the conversation comes to your earning potential. Are you at the lower tier of your earning potential, or are you making tons of money and you don't expect to make that money in the future? If you're at the lower tier, it's probably best to do Roth. Higher tier, probably best to do traditional.

It does not matter what your age is. If you are a 22-year-old making $1 million who expects to make nothing at 40 or 50, then you know what? Do traditional! Don't pay taxes on that $1 million.

So, I just wanted to clear that misconception up and say ultimately for making that decision it's probably best to do some type of combination, but it really comes down to what an individual perceives about their current tax situation and their future tax situation.

Brokamp: It's very tough to know what future tax rates will be.

Flippen: Impossible.

Brokamp: Impossible, so getting that tax diversification by maybe going with the traditional 401(k), but then the Roth IRA makes a lot of sense. I think one reason why people will say the Roth is better for young people is that it's implied that younger people aren't in a high tax bracket, but you make the important point that some are. If you're in a high tax bracket, maybe the traditional makes more sense. And as always, there are a couple of other benefits of the Roth IRA. One I already mentioned is that it's easier to get the money before age 59 and a half because you can get the contributions out ta -free and penalty free, and also there are no required minimum distributions at age 70 and a half for a Roth IRA, so you can let that money grow longer.

[...]

Southwick: The next question comes from -- oh! -- another Brian. Here we go. "My wife and I are in our mid-30s and are a few months away from paying off our house. Our next financial goal is to augment our retirement savings with a passive income stream so that we have more options later in life.

"I currently receive roughly $13,000 in dividends annually, so we're off to a good start. Real estate seems to be popular, particularly in the FIRE community, but I'm leaning toward truly passive income; i.e., not becoming a landlord. My thought is a combination of investments in real estate investment trusts [REITs], funds of dividend-paying stocks, and bond funds. Do you have any suggestions to this approach?"

Brokamp: As an income-generating portfolio, I love that combination! That is very similar to The Fool's Total Income service in which I'm a co-advisor, so I like the idea.

Just to make sure we're all on the same page, real estate investment trusts are stocks that invest in properties -- all kinds of properties -- like office buildings, hospitals, malls, storage units. All kinds. And the reason that they produce a good amount of income is they're required to distribute 90% of their net income. That makes them much higher yielding than most other stocks.

For example, right now the S&P 500 is yielding about 1.8%. The Vanguard REIT ETF is yielding about 4.2%. That's good. And over the long term, when you look at their performance, they're very competitive with the S&P 500, but they're not highly correlated to the S&P 500, so it's a good diversifier to your portfolio.

I like the idea of dividend-paying stocks and dividend-paying funds. The one drawback, I would say, is that if you focus just on stocks that pay dividends, you're going to be very focused on certain sectors like financials and you're going to exclude stocks like technology stocks that don't pay dividends. Or even like Berkshire Hathaway, and Amazon, and Google, and all these that are great companies but don't pay dividends. I would never recommend that anyone just invests in dividend-paying stocks. And then bond funds are very conservative, yielding around 3%. That's fine for money you need in the short term. I think as an income-generating strategy that's good.

You did say, though, that in you are in your mid-30s, so I don't know if you're suggesting that you're going to retire soon, but I would not necessarily recommend all of that if you're not going to retire for 30 years. If you're not going to retire for 30 years, I would focus more on growth than income.

Southwick: The next question comes from Twitter from SolelyWhat. "Do ETF prices move based on demand like stocks, or does the movement of the individual stock affect the price of the ETF? I'm growing my position in the Motley Fool 100 ETF and was just wondering what happens to my money once it gets to Motley Fool Asset Management?"

Flippen: That's such a good question, and I think there's a fundamental misconception about how ETFs work in the market. People genuinely do not understand what an exchange-traded fund is. And it's actually a combination of that explanation.

At its base level, it moves based on demand. It moves based on how much people are buying and selling the ETF. That can make a lot of investors very scared, because they're like, "Oh, my gosh, what if it really drastically differs from the underlying assets?"

Well, there's this nice little thing called "net asset value" [NAV]. When you look at an ETF, you'll also see a NAV reported, and you might notice that the stock or the price of the ETF is very similar to the NAV price. It should be almost exactly equal in a liquid market. And that's because people are going to trade based off the net asset value of that ETF.

Essentially [with] ETFs, I guess there is that added risk of demand for it, and maybe in an extremely illiquid, volatile market you might see that NAV and price start to differ. When you're trading in the U.S. with the vast majority of ETFs you'll see that it trades very similarly to its underlying asset, so the return that you're actually getting from the ETF doesn't so much depend on the demand for the ETF. It largely depends on the underlying asset prices which are changing every day.

Southwick: The next question comes from [unclear: 25:02]. "I've been investing for the last three years along with you guys and realize how awesome investing is, albeit scary recently, and wish I had more cash to put into investing."

Aw! Yet again, another letter that's telling us we're doing our job.

"My wife and I are in our early to mid-30s and have the bulk of our wealth tied up in our primary home. If that money were invested in the stock market or real estate, we would have been in a better financial state completely. We got an offer on our house, and I feel it would make more sense for us to rent anyway. The cash we'll have, if invested Foolishly in a variety of Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers stocks, as well as invested in multiple real estate options we're already interested in [producing 13-15% internal rate of return], would be in five to 10 years a game changer for us. Am I crazy?"

Brokamp: I would say no, he is not crazy.

Southwick: Though Emily is surprised by your answer!

Brokamp: We have talked on the show before -- and we will talk again -- on how home ownership is often not everything it's sold to be. If you look just at the historical returns of home prices vs. the stock market, the stock market [returns] 10% a year. Home prices about 1% above inflation when you factor in all the costs [maintenance, insurance, property taxes, and stuff like that]. I would say you're not crazy to think of that if you can free up some cash to invest elsewhere and you're happy renting.

I will say that investing in real estate does have advantages -- leverage, for example -- and you can buy a $500,000 property by putting down $50,000-100,000. And there are other tax benefits of investing in real estate that we're going to talk about in the next episode, and not all of them necessarily apply to just owning your primary home, per se, so I think he's good to differentiate between those two. There's looking at your own home as an investment, which often doesn't pay off vs. being a real estate investor, which can pay off.

I would say if he's happy being a renter, you definitely have to look at comparables like if you're paying $2,500 a month for your mortgage and rent is going to be $5,000 a month. But I think it totally could make sense. I would just make sure that your wife is also on board with this, because, boy...

Flippen: Honey, we're moving!

Brokamp: We're moving and we will no longer own our home. Home ownership is a big source of discussion among married couples.

Southwick: As well it should be!

Brokamp: As well it should be!

Flippen: Can I flip that back on you, Bro? Do you own a home?

Brokamp: I do.

Flippen: See, it's easy for you to take that position. I think you have the same general point, but I'm a renter right now. I've had to move three times in the past year and it is a pain. That being said, I'm a huge budgeter. I have run the numbers on home ownership, at least in this very expensive area, and every time it comes down to how much do you think that house is going to appreciate over the term in which you're living in it?

And for a lot of people -- especially if they haven't rented for a long time -- they forget how nice it is. The mindset of having a home. A place that is your own. So I think it's always important, when you look at finances, to also remember the human side, because there is a very psychological aspect at play when you own a home vs. when you're a permanent renter and you're 50 or 60 years old.

Brokamp: There's no question about one of the big benefits of having your own home is that it is your own home. There's a psychological benefit to it. You can do whatever you want to and you're never going to be forced to move out unless you can't pay your bills. There's no question there's a very big emotional attachment to owning your own home, which for some people is worth the extra money.

Flippen: And it is expensive.

Brokamp: And the hassle, and the taxes, and the insurance. And the repairs.

Southwick: Oh, repairs! The house is sinking in on itself.

Brokamp: Transaction costs.

Flippen: Also easy for me to say as a renter then, right?

Brokamp: Yes.

Southwick: Yeah, yes.

Brokamp: There's pros and cons.

Flippen: There are pros and cons. Always is.

Rick Engdahl: I think there's a business opportunity for someone just to be a per diem landlord that owners of houses can call. Like, "My sink's dripping. Can you come fix it?"

Flippen: I love that idea!

Engdahl: The Super.com.

Southwick: The last question comes from Sarah. Here we go. "I am a young federal employee [23] and I religiously listen to your podcast. Thanks, all."

Wow! I wish I was 23 again and did some things over differently.

Flippen: I don't!

Brokamp: Says the 23-year-old, here.

Southwick: "I'm currently contributing 10% of my salary into a Roth TSP and receive a 5% match from my employer, but your show has me thinking more about the allocation of the fund I'm in. I participate in the L 2050 Lifecycle Fund most aligned with my retirement date. This fund allocates approximately 28% to the I Fund," [which is international stocks], "11% to the G fund," [which is government bonds], "7% to the F Fund," [which is fixed income], "40% to the C fund" [which is the S&P 500], "and 13% to the S Fund," [which is small-caps].

"Because I'm relatively young and have a well-established emergency fund and high job security, I'm thinking that this allocation is too conservative for my preferences. I would be interested in 57% to C, 13% to S, and 30% to I and nothing to G and F. But I noticed that the share price for the L 2050 Fund is $19.34, while the prices for the individual funds are significantly higher than the aggregated Lifecycle Fund, so the Lifecycle Fund has a significant discount per share compared to the funds that make it up.

"I'm wondering why the difference in price exists between the Lifecycle Fund and the individual funds, and with the significant differences in share price, do I lose the value of a more aggressive fund allocation with the reduced purchasing power of my contribution?"

Flippen: I love this question, because we're based near D.C. at the Motley Fool, and I think we all probably know far more about the TSP than any nongovernment worker deserves to know.

Brokamp: That stands for the Thrift Savings Plan, by the way. That's like the 401(k) for federal employees.

Flippen: We have friends and family all working in the federal government [that] probably want that. Again, we personally get a lot. And when you look at the Lifecycle Funds and I'll just talk generally about the TSP right now -- I tend to agree with you. Sarah said she was also young. Sometimes target retirement date funds are just too conservative, and the reason why they're too conservative is because they're aimed for the general populace. It's better to be a little bit more conservative when dealing with the general populace because you don't know the risk tolerances of everybody, so I think it's a great idea when people think, "This is a great fund to be in if I don't want to ever have to think about my funds."

But if you are somebody who is passionate about investing and finance, you probably want that little bit of upside in exchange for a little bit more risk. And so moving in away from the fixed income and the government bonds is probably a good move, especially when you are extremely young.

That being said, it kind of goes back to that ETF question. The share price doesn't matter. The purchasing power of your money is the same. The Lifecycle 2050 Fund consists of the same funds that you'd be buying if you were buying them directly, so your purchasing power [the amount of money you have invested] will change the same whether or not you have invested in the 2050 Fund or the C Fund or the I Fund or the S Fund. As the stock price of the underlying assets move, so will your investment. The only thing you're really doing is moving away from fixed income, which will increase your risk but hopefully increase your return, as well.

Brokamp: I think her suggested allocation is good. It might be a little low on small-caps. She's putting 13% to S and generally I recommend, especially for people who are younger, to be a little more aggressive with that. And again, Sarah, congratulations because first of all you're saving for retirement. You have your emergency fund so you're in solid shape. And I'll just second what Emily said. The share price actually doesn't matter. They come up with the share price for mutual funds [otherwise known as the net asset value] for calculating the value of all the assets in the fund and dividing by the share price.

And for some reason there's this tendency in the mutual fund industry that when a fund comes out to have a NAV of $10. They figure out how many assets they need to put in and how many shares for it to come at $10. That's what we did at The Motley Fool with our mutual funds, and that's what they did with the 2050 Fund when they issued it in 2011. They just came up with accounting gimmicks to make sure it came out at $10 in NAV.

I asked some folks why that was in the mutual fund industry, and no one actually had a good answer other than it seems like the traditional thing to do.

Southwick: The way we've always been doing it.

Brokamp: Right, so I wouldn't focus too much on that.

I do want to add to this, though, because we got another question about the TSP but this one was from JD, who is a listener who's been encouraging his 24-year-old grandson to save for retirement, who is a staff sergeant in the U.S. Air Force and about to be deployed overseas. He's trying to get him to save for retirement because JD wishes someone had done that for him when he was younger. So he got an email from his grandson saying he's putting 5% of his paycheck into the TSP so he can get the government match of 5%, so a saving of 10%. That, by the way, is a great savings rate if you're starting early in your career. And he's decided to split up his funds into 40% C Fund [which is the S&P 500], 40% small-caps, 20% international. I think that's a pretty solid allocation.

So a great job to JD for encouraging his grandson and a good job from his grandson for choosing to take the advice and choosing what seems to be a pretty good allocation. Good luck to him as he's deployed overseas.

Southwick: A ton of A+ students today in the mailbag, huh?

Brokamp: Yes.

Southwick: Really impressive, you guys. Wow! You're putting all of us to shame. Maybe not Emily, but you're putting Bro and me to shame. Shall we move on to some listener feedback?

Brokamp: Let's do it!

Southwick: Blake on Twitter just finished the 2019 Loofie Awards episode, and he has two questions relating to the 50/30/20.

Brokamp: I think it was the 20/30/50.

Southwick: Here we go. Something we just cleared up. "Does the housing section just include rent and mortgage?" And the other question relates to savings. "Does the 20% include 401(k) and IRA savings in addition to money put into savings?"

Brokamp: First of all, the 20/30/50 is a budgeting rule of thumb. 20% for savings, 30% for housing, 50% for everything else. And it's all pre-tax, so it's not after-tax, but the 20% includes anything you're saving for the future, so it's IRAs, 401(k)s, 529 college savings accounts, money you're putting into an emergency fund. And then for the 30% for housing, it's all housing-related costs, so taxes, insurance, utilities, and all that type of stuff.

Southwick: Also on Twitter, Neal and [unclear: 36:26] ... We've got a couple of people who are not a fan of Sean talking about getting married in our wedding episode and particularly talking about his prenup. Neal wanted to know, "I was wondering if Sean wrote his own vows and ended them with, 'Until retirement do us part.' Particularly after his discussion on a prenup, you need to all reboot and have someone on who, with all due respect, has a clue about how to have a potentially successful marriage."

Brokamp: I think he talked about a postnup, as well.

Southwick: So good! That's so good! Chip also emailed us to say he did not love the "marriage as a transaction" portrayal from Sean. I believe on the show Sean did say that this was going to be a controversial take with the prenup.

Brokamp: Sean, first of all, relishes in being somewhat controversial and countercultural, and he met his wife here, at The Motley Fool. I know them both. I'm sure they're very happy and I'm sure they're going to be fine. He has a soft side to him.

Southwick: They say the first time marry for love, and the second... But the idea is that usually when you first get married, you're young and you don't have anything to protect. A prenup is not going to help because you don't have anything. But if I were older and already had kids and had my own wealth, I would absolutely want a prenup if I got married a second time around just to protect my own.

Brokamp: I think I would, too.

Southwick: But we're not getting divorced anytime soon.

Brokamp: No.

Southwick: No. Lock it down. Pick a good egg to marry, everybody!

Brokamp: Oh, my gosh, yes!

Southwick: On a previous episode, we talked about Acorns, and we said if anybody out there has any experience with Acorns, let us know what you think. Wendy responded and let us know that her experience is that it's an easy on-ramp to investing and not at all scary. "I started with an initial investment of $5 and enabled rollovers. That's the spare change part. And I chose how aggressive I wanted my portfolio to be and then I put away my phone. Set it and forget it. Easy." And she did forget all about it.

"Later I took the step of adding monthly automatic transfers of $150 to my Acorn account and I applied a 5X multiplier to my rollovers. It was equally painless and I have never missed the money. In fact, I forgot that I did this and I was completely comfortable month to month. Now my Acorns account is worth just under $3,000. I will sometimes take extra money at the end of the month and invest it as a one-time investment. I recommend Acorns to anyone who wants an easy [way] to begin investing. I like their interface which shows past and present data along with future projections."

She also said that she uses it in tandem with the Empower app. "These are two apps that help me manage my money pretty well." I don't know that one.

Brokamp: I don't know anything.

Southwick: Thank you, Wendy, for sharing that! Sean wants to know [and I don't think this was meant as a challenge, but I still read it as one just because it's funnier that way]. "I was hoping to get some more information about Bro's certificate from K State." I'm sure it was meant as an honest inquiry and not as a challenge. "I remember him talking about it, but I don't remember exactly what he got it in. Something like financial psychology or financial therapy." There you go!

Brokamp: It was financial therapy.

Southwick: And what was the point of financial therapy?

Brokamp: First of all, it recommends that financial decisions are often emotional decisions and sometimes we are making poor decisions, either not delaying gratification or it could be some sort of disordered thinking like being a shopaholic or being a compulsive gambler. Also addressing the issues with couples and making decisions like that. It was very interesting.

And if you're interested in finding a financial therapist in your area, go to the website of the Financial Therapy Association and put in your address. It's a relatively new field [maybe about 10 years old], so not every state and locality has someone in the area, but more and more of them are able to work with people online and long distance.

Southwick: Kim wrote in because she was concerned that I was taking the Theranos situation a little too lightheartedly. Bro is growling. You're in agreement.

Brokamp: No, because she was saying that people were chuckling, and that's usually me doing the chuckling.

Southwick: I just wanted to apologize if I sounded like I was joking too much. If I was laughing, it was laughter incredulity, I believe, that someone would have such little regard for human safety. What Elizabeth Holmes did was absolutely horrible and I hope she does serious time for it. Kim, I apologize if you felt I was being too lighthearted.

We have some postcards, here. Our favorite swimmer, Jim, sent in a card from Singapore. He said he's been living solely in hotels without a fixed income anymore because he saved up enough money, and now he just travels all the time. "It's crazy, but fun. Come join me and do the show remotely." And then he put JK. I'm like, "I don't know. I wouldn't mind going to Singapore to do the show remotely."

Jonathan from Indiana wrote that he spent Christmas on the beach listening to all The Fool podcasts except Answers because he listens to those the minute they are released. There's a card from the Caymans.

And here's one I feel bad about. It got lost in the mail, here at The Fool but it's a Christmas card from the Weaver family!

Brokamp: Oh, my gosh, look at those kids!

Southwick: Isn't that nice? I had said that I love getting Christmas cards from our listeners. This one unfortunately got lost, and I just discovered it.

I also, before we go, need to mention that we have a special guest behind the glass today, and that's Christian. He was able to swing by Motley Fool Studios today, get a tour, and sit in on a taping. Do you want to say hi?

Christian: Thank you for having me!

Brokamp: It's great for you to be here!

Southwick: Yes! We happen to stumble into each other at a local bar, actually, and now he's here, so it's so great to have you!

And the last thing is I want to say Happy Birthday to Motley Fool Money. Yes, it's celebrating its 10th anniversary this week. That's, of course, the podcast that started it all here at The Motley Fool, so if you aren't listening to Motley Fool Money yet, give it a listen, and hooray and congrats, you guys! If it wasn't for Motley Fool Money, we wouldn't be here in Motley Fool Answers.

Brokamp: It's true.

Southwick: That's the show! It's edited flippantly [word play] by Rick Engdahl. For Robert Brokamp and Emily Flippen, thanks again for joining us! This was great having you! Will you come back again?

Flippen: It's always lots of fun! Of course! If you'll have me. You're not scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Southwick: Oh, we'd be glad to have you any day!

Brokamp: Not at all.

Southwick: Any day! So like I was saying, for Robert Brokamp and Emily Flippen, stay Foolish everybody!

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Top Blue Chip Stocks To Watch Right Now

tags:FMI,AGX,SNAP,

At first, the gifts seemed innocent enough: a free dinner and a private helicopter tour over the Grand Canyon. By the end of it, though, the Polish official was standing in a Warsaw parking lot, accepting $100,000 in bags of cash, given to him in exchange for multi-million-dollar government contracts.

You might be thinking that this government employee was being paid off by the mafia or some shadowy military contractor, but think again: According to the SEC and Polish prosecutors, the official was allegedly bribed by white-collar executives within Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and IBM (NYSE:IBM), the American blue chip technology firms.

In 2014, the SEC charged HP with violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in Poland. At the time, the agency explained HP executives "provided gifts and cash bribes worth more than $600,000 to a Polish government official to obtain contracts with the national police agency."

Click to enlarge

Top Blue Chip Stocks To Watch Right Now: Foundation Medicine, Inc.(FMI)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Amundi Pioneer Asset Management Inc. cut its stake in shares of Foundation Medicine Inc (NASDAQ:FMI) by 0.3% in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The fund owned 273,821 shares of the company’s stock after selling 768 shares during the period. Amundi Pioneer Asset Management Inc.’s holdings in Foundation Medicine were worth $21,563,000 as of its most recent filing with the SEC.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Wall Street continued to struggle on Tuesday, with major benchmarks posting larger losses than those seen in recent sessions. A new round of escalation in trade conflict between the U.S. and China was the proximate cause for concerns among investors, as the White House threatened to add tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods. Despite the broader worries, some companies still had good news that sent their individual shares higher. CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), Foundation Medicine (NASDAQ:FMI), and Solid Biosciences (NASDAQ:SLDB) were among the best performers on the day. Here's why they did so well.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Shares of Foundation Medicine Inc (NASDAQ:FMI) hit a new 52-week high and low on Tuesday . The company traded as low as $108.65 and last traded at $107.25, with a volume of 22037 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at $107.20.

Top Blue Chip Stocks To Watch Right Now: Argan, Inc.(AGX)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System decreased its holdings in Argan, Inc. (NYSE:AGX) by 26.3% during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 5,343 shares of the construction company’s stock after selling 1,907 shares during the quarter. State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System’s holdings in Argan were worth $229,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Federated Investors Inc. PA raised its position in Argan, Inc. (NYSE:AGX) by 26.6% during the first quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The fund owned 99,678 shares of the construction company’s stock after buying an additional 20,936 shares during the period. Federated Investors Inc. PA’s holdings in Argan were worth $4,282,000 as of its most recent filing with the SEC.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Media stories about Argan (NYSE:AGX) have been trending somewhat positive recently, according to Accern Sentiment. The research firm ranks the sentiment of news coverage by analyzing more than twenty million news and blog sources. Accern ranks coverage of publicly-traded companies on a scale of negative one to positive one, with scores closest to one being the most favorable. Argan earned a daily sentiment score of 0.24 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned news stories about the construction company an impact score of 45.7492523122329 out of 100, meaning that recent news coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an impact on the company’s share price in the immediate future.

Top Blue Chip Stocks To Watch Right Now: Snap Inc. (SNAP)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chris Lange]

    Snap Inc.’s (NYSE: SNAP) fourth-quarter report is scheduled for Tuesday after the closing bell as well. The consensus forecast calls for a net loss of $0.08 per share on $375.82 million in revenue. Shares ended the week trading at $6.91 apiece. The consensus price target is $7.63, and the 52-week trading range is $4.82 to $21.22.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP) dropped more than 8% Thursday to set a new 52-week low of $7.56. Shares closed at $8.23 on Wednesday and the stock’s 52-week high is $21.22. Volume was nearly 50% higher than the daily average of around 21.6 million. The company’s price target was cut from $9 to $7 at Evercore ISI. The firm maintained its Underperform rating.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP) traded down about 6% Tuesday to set a new 52-week low of $7.03 after closing at $7.48 on Monday. The stock’s 52-week high is $21.22. Volume was a bit higher than the daily average of around 22.2 million. Media analyst firm MoffettNathanson this morning cut Snap’s 2019 revenue estimate by 7% and the 2020 estimate by 15%, adding that Snap is “quickly running out of money.”

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Last week's biggest gainer among New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks was Snap (NYSE:SNAP), soaring nearly 32% after posting better-than-expected top-line results and encouraging guidance for its latest quarter. Snapchat's parent company has seen its shares skyrocket 65% in 2019, bucking the trend of sharp declines through its first two years of trading. 

Saturday, March 9, 2019

Golden Ocean Group (GOGL) Hits New 1-Year Low at $4.77

Golden Ocean Group Ltd (NASDAQ:GOGL) reached a new 52-week low on Thursday . The stock traded as low as $4.77 and last traded at $4.84, with a volume of 700 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $4.96.

GOGL has been the topic of several analyst reports. Nordea Equity Research lowered shares of Golden Ocean Group from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Thursday, January 10th. BidaskClub upgraded shares of Golden Ocean Group from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday, January 9th. BTIG Research initiated coverage on shares of Golden Ocean Group in a report on Thursday, November 15th. They issued a “buy” rating and a $10.00 target price on the stock. Finally, Zacks Investment Research lowered shares of Golden Ocean Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Thursday, January 17th. Four analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, one has issued a hold rating and three have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock currently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $10.15.

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The company has a current ratio of 0.85, a quick ratio of 1.43 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.58. The firm has a market capitalization of $737.10 million, a P/E ratio of 7.98 and a beta of 1.87.

Golden Ocean Group (NASDAQ:GOGL) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, February 19th. The shipping company reported $0.16 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.06 by $0.10. Golden Ocean Group had a net margin of 12.89% and a return on equity of 5.65%. The business had revenue of $131.92 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $106.10 million. Equities research analysts forecast that Golden Ocean Group Ltd will post -0.1 EPS for the current fiscal year.

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, March 21st. Investors of record on Thursday, March 7th will be issued a dividend of $0.05 per share. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, March 6th. This represents a $0.20 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 4.18%. Golden Ocean Group’s payout ratio is 100.00%.

Several large investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Millennium Management LLC raised its holdings in shares of Golden Ocean Group by 179.7% during the fourth quarter. Millennium Management LLC now owns 296,945 shares of the shipping company’s stock worth $1,829,000 after acquiring an additional 190,785 shares during the period. Segall Bryant & Hamill LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Golden Ocean Group during the fourth quarter worth $4,217,000. Gotham Asset Management LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Golden Ocean Group during the fourth quarter worth $119,000. Northern Trust Corp grew its position in Golden Ocean Group by 10.7% in the fourth quarter. Northern Trust Corp now owns 73,669 shares of the shipping company’s stock valued at $454,000 after purchasing an additional 7,100 shares in the last quarter. Finally, GSA Capital Partners LLP bought a new position in Golden Ocean Group in the fourth quarter valued at $69,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 20.43% of the company’s stock.

TRADEMARK VIOLATION WARNING: This piece was first reported by Ticker Report and is owned by of Ticker Report. If you are reading this piece on another site, it was illegally copied and reposted in violation of international copyright & trademark legislation. The correct version of this piece can be viewed at https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/4204547/golden-ocean-group-gogl-hits-new-1-year-low-at-4-77.html.

About Golden Ocean Group (NASDAQ:GOGL)

Golden Ocean Group Limited, a shipping company, engages in the transportation of bulk commodities worldwide. It owns and operates a fleet of dry bulk vessels, including Newcastlemax, Capesize, Panamax, and Ultramax vessels in the spot and time charter markets. The company transports bulk commodities, such as ores, coal, grains, and fertilizers.

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Friday, March 8, 2019

Stock Market News: Netflix Subscribers Seen Soaring; H&R Block Deals With Tax Delays

The stock market declined on Thursday morning, reflecting rising investor anxiety about the state of the global economy. A move from the European Central Bank sent overseas markets lower, and the impact spilled over into U.S. stocks as well. As of 11:30 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) was down 212 points to 25,461. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) dropped 15 points to 2,756, while the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) fell 62 points to 7,444.

Despite the overall concerns among investors, individual companies continue to have an important impact on sentiment. Streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has enjoyed impressive subscriber growth in recent years, and those favorable trends seem likely to continue. Yet for H&R Block (NYSE:HRB), tax reform has had pros and cons, and the tax-prep specialist is still navigating the impact of new tax laws on its customers.

Don't touch that dial

Shares of Netflix were down less than 1% after a stock analyst company issued positive comments about the streaming video specialist. Piper Jaffray said that Netflix could see double-digit percentage growth in subscriber counts over the past 12 months, with projections coming in 3.5 percentage points better than the 9.1% consensus among those following the stock. Piper expects Netflix to see huge traction on the global front, with international subscribers counts expected to see gains of more than half compared to the 38% that most had expected.

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Image source: Netflix.

Many Netflix shareholders have worried about slowing subscriber growth in recent years. Particularly in the U.S. market, Netflix has just barely kept expansion above a 10% rate since 2016, and eventually, the company would like to take its current domestic subscriber base of roughly 60 million households and grow it to 90 million.

Nevertheless, international markets are the bigger opportunity for Netflix. Despite competition overseas, Netflix has been smart about developing not just streaming technology but also prized content, and that could make the difference in selling global viewers on the value of its platform.

A not-too-taxing quarter for H&R Block

H&R Block's stock did better, rising 4% following the release of its fiscal third-quarter financial report. The tax preparation specialist said that it had to deal with delays in tax return filings as a result of the government shutdown and the late start to tax season, contributing to a drop of total return volume of 1% through Feb. 28. In particular, assisted returns were down 6.5%, with more customers opting to use H&R Block's do-it-yourself return option. Revenue dropped 4% from the year-earlier quarter, but per-share losses got cut in half due largely to H&R Block's own tax benefit from the lower corporate tax rate.

Stock analysts have feared that H&R Block would see a big drop in returns this year, due in large part to the increase in the standard deduction and other moves to try to simplify tax preparation. Yet comments from executives seem to suggest otherwise, as CFO Tony Bowen said that the company "remain[s] on track with our strategic and operational plans and expect[s] to achieve our financial outlook for the fiscal year."

As we've seen in other areas, this year's tax season has seen some early surprises give way to more typical conditions. That could prove to be the case with H&R Block's business as well -- especially if taxpayers striving to make the most of tax reform decide they need help to do so.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

Despegar.com, Corp. (DESP) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Image source: The Motley Fool.

Despegar.com, Corp.  (NYSE:DESP)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallMarch 07, 2019, 8:00 a.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Despegar Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. A slide presentation is accompanying today's webcast and is available on the Investors section of the company's website, www.investor.despegar.com. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. This conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen-only mode.

Now, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Javier Kelly, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Javier Kelly -- Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for a discussion of our fourth and full year 2018 results. In addition, to reporting financial results in accordance with US generally accepted accounting principles, we'll discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and operating metric including foreign exchange neutral presentations. Investors should read the definition of these measures and metrics, including our press release carefully to ensure that they understand them. Non-GAAP financial measures and operating metrics should not be considered in isolation or substitute for or superior to GAAP financial measures and are provided as supplementary information only.

Before we begin our formal remarks, allow me to remind you that certain statements made during the course of the discussion may constitute forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ, including factors that may be beyond the company's control. For a description of these risks, please refer to our filings with the SEC and our press release.

Speaking on today's call, CEO, Damian Scokin, who will provide an overview of the fourth quarter and update you on our strategic priorities, and also Alberto Lopez Gaffney, our CFO, who will also discuss the quarter financials and our outlook for the year. After that, we'll open the call for your questions. Damian, please go ahead.

Damian Scokin -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Javier. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We appreciate your participation in our quarterly and year end conference call.

We continued to execute on our strategic priorities of leading with innovation, operating with excellence and driving higher margin packages, hotels and other products. We are also seeing the benefit of our investment in brand building to attract new customers and gain market share, and our continuous improvement in customer service initiatives, which also leads to increases in repeat purchase rate.

A key driver of our strategy is identifying new sources of growth, bring them organic or through acquisitions. Importantly, our strong cash position provides us the opportunity to move when the right opportunity at the right price comes along.

Now, let me provide a few comments about the quarter's results. We have built an omni-channel infrastructure to ensure our customers to have a great booking experience, no matter what platform they chose to use. Additionally, we continued to invest in the travel shopping experience and see a positive response from our customers in the form of improved customer satisfaction scores. While last year was challenging in many front, we have made significant commercial and operational progress. Stronger and agile execution of our strategic plan is helping us address continued macro and foreign exchange pressures.

As a result, we saw gross bookings increased 28% on an FX-neutral basis. Excluding Argentina, that experience at 51% FX devaluation in the year, transactions and room nights were up 18% and 33% year-over-year. We are strengthening our relationships with major hotel owners and vendors and gaining better access to inventory. We already have well established a good relationships with vendors. And in addition, to seen our inventory increase, we are optimizing the participation of our key hotels supplier with our top 100 hotels in Latin America, increasing by 270 basis points, their share of total LatAm hotel gross bookings.

As we continue to establish a closer relationship with our clients, mobile access in general and specifically our mobile app usage becomes critical to our strategy. We probably mentioned that mobile continues to gain traction, up 34% in Q4 and accounting for 36% of total transactions.

Most important, our strategy to gain market share to further strengthen our leading position is working. We increased market share a 130 basis points in Air despite an extremely challenging and volatile environment, which include softness in two of our largest market and overall construction in Latin America. We accomplish these through various initiatives, which include lowering air and customer fees earlier in the year, investing in technology and consumer insights and putting the right products in sight(ph)of the right customers at the right time.

As we continue building our leading position, we are focused on finding the right balance between growth and profitability. As you heard from us before, prioritizing the growth opportunities we see in Latin America, we lowered fees to reinforce our leading market position and increase our market share. Although this hurt our profitability. Despite 2018 turn out to be significantly different on the macro and F X front than what we thought at this time last year. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $9 million, excluding Argentina. Total adjusted EBITDA was down 58%, primarily due to the 51% currency devaluation. Also impacting EBITDA were the initiatives we have undertaken to drive market share gains, along with continued investments in technological development to enhance our product platform and services.

Turning to page four. Over the past year we have been able to solidify and grow both, total transactions and gross bookings. Our attractive value proposition, our ability to reach new customers and to retain and serve existing customers on and offline has been the driving factor behind the growth and market share gains, we have delivered. This also creates a unique position in the Latin American online travel industry. These distinguishing attribute provided the foundation to further strengthen our position in a currently challenged market.

As you can see on this chart, total transactions were up 11% in the quarter, with Air transactions increasing faster than packages, hotels and other travel products. This is largely due to the contribution of Argentina to the mix, which is experiencing a shift toward lower-margin product as a result of the continued industry contraction and FX volatility.

However, excluding Argentina packages, hotels and other travel products grew by 24% year-on-year, above 15% increase explained in Air transactions, with total transactions up 18%. We are also seeing further success in delivering on our key strategies. We leveraged our strength where we had the greatest growth opportunities. To that end, we remain focused on driving sales of higher margin packages, hotels and other products. And in Q4, stand-alone packages increased 38% year-on-year, remaining our fastest growing products.

On an FX neutral basis, gross bookings rose 28% year-on-year, a similar rate of growth as in the third quarter. As reported, gross bookings were down 4%, impacted by the macro disruption in Argentina. This, however, was significantly better than the low teen contraction experienced by the travel industry in Latin America in the same period. Excluding Argentina, as reported, gross bookings increased 16%. For the full year, gross bookings were up 6% on a reported basis and 29% on an FX neutral basis.

The better performance on a reported basis for the full year versus the fourth quarter reflects stronger currency at the start of the year. As a reminder, our international business has increased flexibility to transfer the devaluation effect to local currency terms in periods of devaluation, vis-a-vis domestic supplier. However, such flexibility is limited by the negative impact of macro disruptions on local consumers disposable income.

Moving to ASP. The average selling price or ASP was $451 per transaction, up 15% on an FX neutral basis. Continued FX weakness and mix shift from international to domestic travel, mainly in Argentina are impacting this year-on-year reported growth rate. This is also offsetting the successful mix shift to higher ASP packages.

Now turning to page five. Moving on to a discussion of some of the latest business development initiatives. One of the key components of our strategic plan is driving product and service innovation. Innovation continues to be our lifeline(ph)and sets us apart from the other players in the region. Our goal is to differentiate ourself through value, quality of service, a customized product offering and appealing financing alternatives. Our operating trends are reflecting of this. We are strategically investing in the most promising opportunities.

Let me now talk about the few. One that we are most excited about was our fourth quarter launch of our proprietary business, including Tour Operations and allotment or cupos. Briefly, the two operations consist of offering customers at package that includes a charter flight, accommodations and transportation. We believe that Despegar is uniquely equipped to manage inventory risk based on our understanding of tariff pattern follow our two decades of experience across different macro cycles and by offering these packages to a high demand area at peak travel season. This is a seasonal service, as a reminder, it is summer in South America right now, at the moment we are only offering these services from Argentina to different destinations in the Brazilian coast(ph).

We're also pleased with the early result, a total of 110 charter have flown with a load factor of 99%. In the case of Cupos, where we serve a block of plane seats or hotel nights at more attractive rates to offer our customers. Risk is mitigated as there is cutoff date when we can return their reserve fees, room back to supplier and no risk or penalty. I have already discussed this activity we are having with cross selling and increasing stand-alone packages. But it is worth mentioning again as it is a key initiative for us.

Call centres are an attractive opportunity for us, as they provide another platform for customers to book travel. It is also an opportunity to onboard new client. We are very pleased with customer response as call centers gross bookings from our seven key market increased 124% sequentially in the quarter. And our key benefit, ASPs are significantly higher than online booking.

We are also encouraged by the success of our technology upgrade, further enhancing the traveling experience. A good example of this is the success we are seeing in our mobile app. Consumers are still downloading at very high levels, increasing 27% year-on-year in this quarter. As a result, our cumulative downloads totaled 49 million by year-end.

Most importantly, transactions of higher margin stand-alone packages sold via the mobile app almost doubled year-on-year. As you can also see on this slide, we continue to add features to our mobile app to enhance the customer experience. We are pleased with the success of our recent product and service launches, which we believe deliver the type of added benefit many consumers are seeking. Despite our success to date, we see even more opportunity to interact with not only our existing customers, but also to attract new consumers.

I will now turn the call to Alberto to discuss the financial results for the quarter.

Alberto Lopez Gaffney -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Damian, and good morning, everyone. Let's take a deeper look at our operations on a regional basis on slide six. We are pleased to report above industry FX neutral gross booking expansion and market share gains across all key markets. In Brazil, our largest market accounting 41% of transactions, we achieved a 12% year-on-year increase in transactions and 32% in FX neutral gross bookings.

As reported, gross bookings were up 13% of the mix shift from domestic to international travel, along with growth in higher margin packages, partially offset the 15% currency depreciation.

In Argentina, we continue to expand our market share despite the industry contraction. Thanks to initiatives we have undertaken, we achieved these even as transactions were down -- were down 12% reflecting a challenging macro backdrop.

FX neutral gross bookings in the country were up 26% year-on-year and ASP's were in line with inflation. However, with the mix shift to domestic travel driven by the 51% peso devaluation, we did not manage to offset the impact from the currency depreciation.

Across the rest of Latin America, we achieved growth of 29% in transactions and 27% in FX neutral gross bookings. We're particularly pleased with above industry growth in transactions in two of our more competitive markets. Transactions in Mexico rose 10% year-on-year, while Colombia posted accelerated growth of 61%. This solid performance reflects successful execution of our strategy to grow sales of higher margin packages, hotels and international air travel in these markets. On a reported basis, ASPs across the rest of LatAm declined 6%, reflecting currency depreciation in the region. However, gross bookings increased 21%.

Turning now to the financial results on slide seven. FX neutral revenues were up 9% year-on-year in the quarter despite market contraction, as we continued to successfully execute our growth strategy. Importantly, in addition to gaining market share, we continued to make progress on our goal of increasing the share of higher margin products. Packages, hotels and other transactions accounted for 62% of total revenue this quarter, compared with 54% in fourth quarter 2017. As reported revenues declined 13% in the quarter to $133 million.

Factors contributing to this decline include, as in the prior quarter revenues were significantly impacted by the FX translation effect, resulting mainly from the sharp peso devaluation in Argentina, and to a lesser extent from currency depreciation in Brazil.

Revenues were also affected by the planned reductions in Air customer fees and discounts in package transactions, implemented early in the year that are helping us achieve further share gains in a soft demand environment.

The weaker customer demand also contributed to a decline in supplier bonuses this quarter. Last, another important factor impacting revenues was the continued mix shift from international to lower price domestic destinations. This was mainly the case in Argentina, given the sharp peso devaluation, which resulted in a drop of over 720 basis points in the share of international transactions. At a consolidated level, we experienced a slight mix shift of 11 basis points from international to lower margin domestic transactions.

Taken together, these factors resulted in a 65 basis point year-on-year contraction in revenue margin to 11% in the quarter. More specifically, revenues per transactions went down 11% for packages, hotels and other travel products segment and 32% in the Air segment.

Turning to slide eight, our initiatives supporting cross selling and share gains across our key markets, along with enhanced customer service resulted in a 12% year-on-year decline in FX neutral gross profit to $99 million in the quarter. In addition to our investments in lower air fees and customer fees concerned packages, this quarter we also stepped up the availability and duration of instalment plans in Argentina after a reduction in third quarter of '18, following the steep hikes in interest rates.

We did this mainly due to our Black Friday and Cyber Monday industry events, which resulted in significant increase in revenues. This quarter we also had a higher mix of transactions where Despegar was the credit card merchant of record instead of the airline suppliers, allowing us to offer more attractive customer financing options.

Of note, being merchant of record has a negative impact on our cost of revenue. We also incurred a higher fulfillment cost as we seek to further income, customer satisfaction and drive net promoter scores. Cost reduction is an area we will continue to focus on in the coming year.

By contrast, marketing expense declined 7% year-on-year, but increased 180 basis points as a percentage of revenues. As lower ASPs more than offset the benefit from regional currency devaluation on costs, lower marketing investments and higher efficiencies. However, when measured per transaction, we achieved savings of 16% in this category.

Moving down the P&L on slide nine. Our strategy to prioritize top line growth and drive further share gains together with macro disruption impacted profitability in the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA declined 58% year-on-year, with a margin of almost 11% compared to nearly 22% a year-ago.

Importantly, excluding our online operations, adjusted EBITDA increased by $9 million year-on-year in the quarter, and by $15 million for the full year. We also reported negative operating cash flow of $5 million this quarter, compared with cash flow generation of $25 million a year-ago. This was mainly due to higher inventories and cash advances to travel suppliers, reflected our new seasonal proprietary business and lower growth in supplier payables, given slower sales growth.

During the quarter we also made capital investments of $9 million in technology, hardwork and office expansion. We also purchased 600,500 shares in the fourth quarter '18 for a total cost of $10 million. In total, we repurchased 1.5 million shares during 2018 at a total cost of $26 million.

Summing up, let's move to page 10. In closing, we are very pleased with our result this quarter and in the full year with respect to seen significant progress with our strategic initiatives. By contrast, our financial results were impacted by overall contraction in the travel industry, as well as micro and FX volatility and initiatives we undertook to drive share gain.

As we look to the current year, we see our results following the macro environment. Our continuing weaker trends early in the year and improving in the second half. This is mainly driven by the combination of our focus to continue gaining market share across the region, while finding the right balance between growth and profitability.

We are expecting Brazil and the rest of LatAm to be our growth drivers in 2019. Based on economists consensus and our view, Argentina's economy is expected to hit bottom in first half '19 and gradually begin improving toward the second half of the year.

In Brazil, the consensus and our view is that, the macro to slowly continue the recovering trend and accelerate as the year advances. Against these backdrop, we are expecting sequential margin improvement to track the economic outlook.

Although, we expect some macro challenges again in 2019, we will continue to do what we do best. With our decades experience operating in the region, combined with our deep understanding of and focus on our customers, we have a distinct competitive advantage. We will continue to opportunistically build on our leading position and expand our product and service offerings.

We remain focused on driving long-term shareholder value by delivering balanced top and bottom line growth, while invested in differentiated capabilities to expand our competitive advantage. Our strategy is to further build our market share, improve customer service and drive long-term profitable growth.

As I reflect on the progress that we've made against our strategic plan and initiatives we have under way for 2019 and beyond, I'm confident and excited about the future of this company. The Latin American travel market is large and under-penetrated via online booking. We are very well positioned to succeed.

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Yes, thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Eric Sheridan with UBS.

Eric Sheridan -- UBS -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the question, and thanks for all the details. Guys, I want to dig in a little bit on gross margin, came in weaker than we thought in Q4. So two part question. Wanted to understand a little bit of how much of that was product mix versus maybe a new normal of lower gross margins going forward? And how we should think about temporary impact on that versus a more permanent impact on that? And the second part would be asset(ph)product mix, how should we think about the mix between packages and Air, and how it might evolve as you go through 2019? What are you seeing from consumers versus competitors in terms of how that product mix might evolved? Thanks so much.

Alberto Lopez Gaffney -- Chief Financial Officer

And. Hi, Eric. Good morning. Alberto Lopez Gaffney speaking here. How are you doing?

Eric Sheridan -- UBS -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Alberto Lopez Gaffney -- Chief Financial Officer

So Eric, in addressing your question, we certainly -- I think we have been implemented a strategy in order to make the most of the macro disruption that have taken place in the region. And we -- from that perspective, we believe that the strategy has been working and continues to work from the perspective that we have been gaining market share, and particularly in those regions of different say, in countries particularly Argentina, OK, where our competitors are much weaker. So from that perspective, clearly, we have invested significantly, and when it comes to those investments, particularly when it comes to the impact on the P&L.

So certainly the take rates, gross margin, etcetera, they have been affected. We do not -- we believe that as the economies start to recover, particularly Argentina and secondly the Brazil, and then we can discuss about how we see the pace of that recovery. Okay. We will be in a position to recover margins so -- addressing your first question, one of the points of the questions like, is this a new norm? We do not think this as a new norm. Okay.

Secondly, with regards to outlook and our lead for the very last -- the reasons for the contraction that I've been peripherally I have already addressed. But when it comes to outlook, given the disruption that actually took place during 2018, the year that we finalized already. I think it's important as we start comparing and projecting and delivering the outlook of this company to think about the business less so on an year-on-year, let's say, Q4 versus Q4 the prior year and more on a sequential basis. Okay. Because the structure of the industry have adjusted materially.

As such, we believe that there were two key drivers, particularly Brazil that today is clearly our top market has started to recover by the end of 2018 and already in -- first quarter of '19 and we expect that that recover. Okay. We'll continue slowly in the trend throughout 2019.

In the case of Argentina -- In the case of Argentina, clearly, I think we are going through the toughest time in the country. I think all the macro economic metrics point to that, and also that is what we are seeing from the actual trade and the volumes and the level of activity we are experiencing. So, clearly, Argentina is expected to hit bottom in this first half of '19.

All in all, we expect that -- that there will be a sequential or a margin improvement/bottoming to track this economic outlook. Okay. And then we will continue adjust, let's say, the mix of investment to gain market share in order to also look for recovery of margins and increases in profitability. So that is how we are actually seeing. And I hope by this I addressed you guys.

Now, going into what is the impact and how we are -- and why that margins have contracted. Okay. Clearly, as you look into the contraction year-on-year, like the Q4 '17 vis-a-vis Q4 '18. And over there you see a gap of 100 basis points in the take rate. So when it comes to take rate, a relevant portion of that gap actually is explained by our fees. Fees we're charging to our clients. And that goes, mostly in Air, but -- and then less than half of that goes to lodging. So that is how we actually see the revenue, the take rate contraction year-on-year from 12% to around 11%.

As you go into the gross margin. Clearly the driver there is twofold. But most importantly, the real driver -- the most relevant driver becomes the cost on instalments. As you know, rates in the region, but most particularly in Argentina have gone up tremendously. That's why, as you might recall, in the third quarter of this -- past 2018, we actually -- we took our food from the better when it comes to financing -- financing our clients. Financially went up again in the fourth quarter as rates came down. That is what we believe should be an improvement going forward, because the current rate that we have in the 50s in local currency, we believe that we are normalization of the economy and that's our outlook. Again, clearly, the macro should end up evolving as per our review and most importantly, as per economies consensus, that would be another source of gross margin recovery.

Last, what you see margins is lower volumes. And lower volumes not only affect, let's say, below once you get into fixed cost, but also affects what is the type of backends that you are actually getting from our suppliers. Because overall volumes are coming down (inaudible) activity. To complement this question of like, what are the drivers for these margin contraction, then you go into the mix shift. And then when it comes to mix, in this past quarter, overall, we continued to see the trend toward domestic traveling vis-a-vis international traveling. As you know, ASPs are materially more attractive when it comes to international business than the domestic business. Some geographies as they were actually in the past year look year-on-year were actually kind of bottoming, let's say, Brazil, and in Brazil international travel got stronger, but in most of the other geographies with FX devaluation on the (inaudible) region and particularly Argentina where the shift was from international to domestic.

I'll pause for a minute, because I realize this has been a long answer. And see if you have any further follow-ups?

Eric Sheridan -- UBS -- Analyst

No. That's great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Edward Yruma(ph)of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Edward Yruma -- KeyBanc Capital Markets. -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. And thanks for taking my questions. I guess, first is just a follow-up to the first question. So with Brazil showing signs or plan to see signs of macro improvement, are you starting to see the Brazilian tourists again more international travel or they are still focused on local? And then second, obviously some very favorable commentary on your initial attempt to tours. How do we think about your ability to scale the tour business, is this a longer term project or can you ramp it pretty quickly based on demand? Thank you.

Damian Scokin -- Chief Executive Officer

Hi. This is Damian. How are you? For the first part of the question, yes, we see some improvements in the Brazilian demand vis-a-vis fourth quarter and an initial return to a more international travel mix. Again, early indications, but they are nice, there is a nice break of the trend that we saw in Brazil in the past, so that's positive. As per the second part of your question, the scalability of our tour operations, we are very happy with the initial results of this effort and in terms of the percentage of bookings that that operation represents of the overall bookings of Despegar is a very tiny portion of it. So the size -- the space for growth we see as very significant.

Edward Yruma -- KeyBanc Capital Markets. -- Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Kevin Kopelman with Cowen and Company.

Emily Elizabeth DiNovo -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. This is Emily on for Kevin. I was wondering if you could give us an update on the competitive situation in Latin American online travel, including both the local and the global players? Thanks.

Damian Scokin -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Hi, Emily. In general, during the last quarter we saw local competition kind of pulling back on some of their investments and their growth, that's particularly true in Argentina and to a lesser extent in Mexico and Brazil. As per the global OTA's, as you know, they do not disclose their numbers by geographic region, but when you track traffic, market investments and visitors and another indications we track, we see different behaviors by market. I would say, not significant changes in most of Latin American market, except Mexico and Brazil, where some particular players have increased their marketing expenditures and now that's not. In general, a balanced quarter in terms of competition.

Emily Elizabeth DiNovo -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

Alex Wong -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hi. This is actually Alex Wong on for Brian. Two questions. First, I appreciate all the commentary on the strategy around omni-channel and continuing to invest in the traveler experience. Perhaps maybe would it be possible to help us size as the new initiatives and how much you spent on that investments in 2018? As you look into 2019, what do you see as kind of the one or two key investments you'll be making as you continue to build that strategy?

And then second question around some of the consumer fees and discounts and packages. Can you maybe help us understand just where you are in that progress? And how you see that progressing in 2019?

Damian Scokin -- Chief Executive Officer

Okay. On the first piece, initiatives for 2018 and investments we've made on those. Without getting into the specific of different investments, I will just mention perhaps these three largest one, which is increasing our presence in terms of omni-channel, we are very confident about the prospects of our call center operations, not only in terms of additional bookings, but on bookings targeted to higher ASP products and we are -- we are at a very early stage there. So that's one of the key initiatives. The other one is, as we spoke before, two operations, we believe that's an area where Despegar has significant growth prospects, given it's -- the region footprint and the volume gives us a good advantage in terms of hedging our risk across many markets. And finally, one initiative that we have not talked so much is mobile, the share of our mobile bookings has increased significantly, this is, as you all know, extremely important form a standpoint in terms of customer loyalty, acquisition costs and the type of satisfaction that our mobile experience provides to our customers. So that's a fair initiative that's going to be critical for us in 2019.

The second part of your question, Alex, if I recall correctly was regarding consumer fees, what's the prospects of that. I would say that, overall, as Alberto mentioned before, the way in which we've been balancing growth and profitability over the last quarter according to market conditions has been to reduce consumer fees, particularly on the Air side in order to take advantage of the market conditions and gain market share. That as we alway said in the part will vary according to market evolution. So far we believe that strategy is still valued and we've been aggressive also during this quarter in order to sustain high growth rates.

We are confident from our macro forecast that the market will go on a rebound on the second half of the year and that we expect to give us the opportunity to give -- to return to higher fee levels, but again, this will all depend on the market evolution. I hope this answers your questions?

Alex Wong -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

That's helpful. Thanks, Damian.

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Alright, as there are no more questions at the present time, I would like to return the floor to Damian fo any closing comments.

Damian Scokin -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, operator. I would like to thank all of you for joining the call today. As usual, if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact any of us and we'll be happy to follow up. Thanks very much. And we are all looking forward to seeing you on our next call. Bye.

Operator

Bye. Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

Duration: 45 minutes

Call participants:

Javier Kelly -- Investor Relations

Damian Scokin -- Chief Executive Officer

Alberto Lopez Gaffney -- Chief Financial Officer

Eric Sheridan -- UBS -- Analyst

Edward Yruma -- KeyBanc Capital Markets. -- Analyst

Emily Elizabeth DiNovo -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Alex Wong -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

More DESP analysis

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